Tonight I have sold GBP/JPY @ 133.83 with a TP 133.20 and SL 134.41.
The logic behind this trade rests on the fact that 134.00 is the last line of defense for the bears. A clean break above this level could bring 137.00 into the picture fairly quickly. When it was first tested last week it fell 100 pips and is now looking test the weekly trend line coming in around 133.95. The 4 hour chart is showing signs of divergence but the price will need to find sellers around 134.05 if this signal will hold up. Next is last weeks highs around 134.15 which should again be an area where sellers emerge. A 40 pip trail will be used.
RSI on all time frames is close to oversold levels, while the 100 and 200 EMA's are under the price from the daily to 5 minute frames.
odds are that 134.00 will hold for atleast a run towards 133.20 support, if not then things may get sticky for longer term bears.
