Tonight I have sold GBP/JPY @ 133.83 with a TP 133.20 and SL 134.41.
The logic behind this trade rests on the fact that 134.00 is the last line of defense for the bears. A clean break above this level could bring 137.00 into the picture fairly quickly. When it was first tested last week it fell 100 pips and is now looking test the weekly trend line coming in around 133.95. The 4 hour chart is showing signs of divergence but the price will need to find sellers around 134.05 if this signal will hold up. Next is last weeks highs around 134.15 which should again be an area where sellers emerge. A 40 pip trail will be used.
RSI on all time frames is close to oversold levels, while the 100 and 200 EMA's are under the price from the daily to 5 minute frames.
odds are that 134.00 will hold for atleast a run towards 133.20 support, if not then things may get sticky for longer term bears.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
FOREX DOJO TRADE #67
Tonight I am short GBP/JPY @ 132.75 with a TP 131.90 and SL 132.25.
So far this year GBP/JPY has been bullish but 133 looks to be a tough level to top. It has been tried twice and a failure on both attempts. The daily charts are showing signs of topping out and the fact that we are not above 133.00 should bring about some selling and if the price breaks 132.50, then 132.00 should not be far off. The 4 hour chart is is also looking good fwith the RSI looking heavy and 132.50 very near by. 1 hour chart is showing good signs of divergence and all is needed is a hold below 132.90 for things to get interesting.
The minute charts are showing a 132.50-132.80 range which are the exact parameters that need to be broken for any move to gain strength. A 50 pip trail will be used since this is esentially a counter trend trade.
So far this year GBP/JPY has been bullish but 133 looks to be a tough level to top. It has been tried twice and a failure on both attempts. The daily charts are showing signs of topping out and the fact that we are not above 133.00 should bring about some selling and if the price breaks 132.50, then 132.00 should not be far off. The 4 hour chart is is also looking good fwith the RSI looking heavy and 132.50 very near by. 1 hour chart is showing good signs of divergence and all is needed is a hold below 132.90 for things to get interesting.
The minute charts are showing a 132.50-132.80 range which are the exact parameters that need to be broken for any move to gain strength. A 50 pip trail will be used since this is esentially a counter trend trade.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
FOREX DOJO TRADE #66
Tonight I wii sell GBP/USD @ 1.6129 with TP @ 1.6076 and SL 1.6176.
With the price unable to hold above 1.62 there seems to be long liquidations happening which is clearly shown with the price action on the 4 hour chart. 1.6075 was strong resistance holding the 76.4 fib level that was broken recently and now looks to be attracting the price. Also on the 4 hour chart resistance around 161.50-161.70 has yet to be broken and the RSI is close to topping out. Hourly chart shows a small rally that is testing resistance around 161.50, if it doesn't break through pretty soon then a move lower should commence.
the 5 and 15 min charts are generally bullish but now seem to be caught in tight 15 pip range that will determine where the pair is heading next.
With the price unable to hold above 1.62 there seems to be long liquidations happening which is clearly shown with the price action on the 4 hour chart. 1.6075 was strong resistance holding the 76.4 fib level that was broken recently and now looks to be attracting the price. Also on the 4 hour chart resistance around 161.50-161.70 has yet to be broken and the RSI is close to topping out. Hourly chart shows a small rally that is testing resistance around 161.50, if it doesn't break through pretty soon then a move lower should commence.
the 5 and 15 min charts are generally bullish but now seem to be caught in tight 15 pip range that will determine where the pair is heading next.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
FOREX DOJO TRADE # 65
I have gone short GBP/CHF @ 1.4945 with a TP 1.4815 an SL 1.49.95.
Tonight this trade looks good for a few reasons.
First off on Friday the critical resistance around 1.5070 was tested and held with a sell off down to 1.49 zone. Since then we have gapped down on the opening of the market and now face important resistance around 1.4975 which must hold in order for more downside. I f the price does turn south then the only real support should be around the 1.4870. Below that 1.4800 is paramount fo the longer term uptrend to continue. This is where the price looks to be headed at the moment.
The hourly chart is looking like the bears are in control with the RSI at it's roof and the price unable to hold above 1.4950. We are also about 100 pips away from the 100 EMA. The 4 hour chart is showing signs that bulls are pushing on the price but unless 1.4975 can be broken in the coming hours we should see 1.4870 at least.
The 15 and 5 minute charts show that we have been bullish in the last few hours but the 1.4950 has capped the rise and now a possible downturn may come into play. It would be wise to either take profit around 1.4875 or add a trail, I am doing the latter and will continue watch the pair tomorrow if my targets are not reached in order to close ahead of them.
Tonight this trade looks good for a few reasons.
First off on Friday the critical resistance around 1.5070 was tested and held with a sell off down to 1.49 zone. Since then we have gapped down on the opening of the market and now face important resistance around 1.4975 which must hold in order for more downside. I f the price does turn south then the only real support should be around the 1.4870. Below that 1.4800 is paramount fo the longer term uptrend to continue. This is where the price looks to be headed at the moment.
The hourly chart is looking like the bears are in control with the RSI at it's roof and the price unable to hold above 1.4950. We are also about 100 pips away from the 100 EMA. The 4 hour chart is showing signs that bulls are pushing on the price but unless 1.4975 can be broken in the coming hours we should see 1.4870 at least.
The 15 and 5 minute charts show that we have been bullish in the last few hours but the 1.4950 has capped the rise and now a possible downturn may come into play. It would be wise to either take profit around 1.4875 or add a trail, I am doing the latter and will continue watch the pair tomorrow if my targets are not reached in order to close ahead of them.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
FOREX DOJO TRADE # 64
Tonight I am short GBP/JPY from 132.23 with a SL 132.80 and TP 131.30.
I had sold this pair on Friday because 132.25 resistance is looking solid and I anticipate a correction down to around 131 levels.
As of right now 132.25 still looks to be holding up and 132.50 is where the daily 200EMA comes in. The 4 hour chart based on RSI and candlesticks is showing signs that upward momentum is starting to dissipate. Hourly charts are showing 132.50 trend line resistance as the area that needs to hold and 132.00 support that needs to break in order for a downturn to occur.
the 5, 15 minute charts are extremely choppy, and bouncing between the 132.20-132.00 zone so at this point it's hard to tell if we'll test 132.50 before trying to break below the 132.00 area. A 50 pip trail will apply.
I had sold this pair on Friday because 132.25 resistance is looking solid and I anticipate a correction down to around 131 levels.
As of right now 132.25 still looks to be holding up and 132.50 is where the daily 200EMA comes in. The 4 hour chart based on RSI and candlesticks is showing signs that upward momentum is starting to dissipate. Hourly charts are showing 132.50 trend line resistance as the area that needs to hold and 132.00 support that needs to break in order for a downturn to occur.
the 5, 15 minute charts are extremely choppy, and bouncing between the 132.20-132.00 zone so at this point it's hard to tell if we'll test 132.50 before trying to break below the 132.00 area. A 50 pip trail will apply.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
FOREXDOJO TRADE # 63
I took profit on yesterday's trade before the U.S data was released around 8:30 EST @ 128.10 for +115 pips. Tonight I am looking to GBP/AUD for retracement back to the 1.58 zone. I am selling @1.5890 with a TP 1.5790 and SL 1.5945 with a 50 pip trail.
The reasons for this trade are:
The 1.5900- 1.5920 zone has some tough resistance on the daily chart in the form of trendline reaching back to 2010 Oct-Nov lows as well as the 76.4 fib. level from the 1.6160-1.5150 fall, A clean break above 1.5950 could bring 1.6160 in a heartbeat. 4 hour and 1 hour charts are looking a bit exhausted and RSI's itching to come down, a test of support around 1.5800 looks likely. Since this somewhat of a countertrend trade based on intraday charts on a Friday a trail is being used.
the 5 & 15 minute charts are looking bullish but I'm hoping 1.5920 can keep a lid on this weeks rally for now. We'll see.
The reasons for this trade are:
The 1.5900- 1.5920 zone has some tough resistance on the daily chart in the form of trendline reaching back to 2010 Oct-Nov lows as well as the 76.4 fib. level from the 1.6160-1.5150 fall, A clean break above 1.5950 could bring 1.6160 in a heartbeat. 4 hour and 1 hour charts are looking a bit exhausted and RSI's itching to come down, a test of support around 1.5800 looks likely. Since this somewhat of a countertrend trade based on intraday charts on a Friday a trail is being used.
the 5 & 15 minute charts are looking bullish but I'm hoping 1.5920 can keep a lid on this weeks rally for now. We'll see.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
FOREXDOJO TRADE # 62
Tonight I am eying the break of 1.2725 in the EUR/CHF. This level holds key resistance and is the only real barrier until the 1.29's. I have bought EUR/CHF @ 1.2695 with a target TP of 1.2895 and SL 1.2635.
The reasons for this trade are as follows.
Daily chart is showing good upward momentum on the RSI and there is a triple bottom formation around 1.2430. A break of 1.27.25 which has the 23.6 fib level from the drop from the 138 level, and important trend line resistance looks imminent. Hourly chart is also looking progressive with 1.2670-1.2680 holding up fairly well and RSI bottoming out. We also sit about 80-100 pips above the 100 & 200 EMA's.
The 15 & 5 minute charts are mildly bearish but holding up well above suport around 1.2680.
The reasons for this trade are as follows.
Daily chart is showing good upward momentum on the RSI and there is a triple bottom formation around 1.2430. A break of 1.27.25 which has the 23.6 fib level from the drop from the 138 level, and important trend line resistance looks imminent. Hourly chart is also looking progressive with 1.2670-1.2680 holding up fairly well and RSI bottoming out. We also sit about 80-100 pips above the 100 & 200 EMA's.
The 15 & 5 minute charts are mildly bearish but holding up well above suport around 1.2680.
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